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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement wins the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving together. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still